Many people are rushing to get onto the “day trading” bandwagon. Hearing stories about the potential to make millions, they are rushing out to trade stock after stock, going for small fluctuations in daily prices. But is it a good idea in the long run?

Probably not. Day trading can get you some quick gains - but the real question should be how much time it takes you to do that. Most people who day trade have to do it full time as a job, and even then they only make about what they would at a regular job. For some people, this is still worth it, but it takes a certain personality. You have to be willing to accept risk - to understand and be able to live with the fact that your income could be dramatically reduced for long periods, and that you could be forced to make cutbacks or even temporarily wiped out. A long run investment strategy is best for those who don’t like those kind of risks - if you’re trying to build a nest egg, you don’t want to go anywhere near day trading. You should be gradually investing, building up your capital for the day when you retire. This is going to be the best option for most people. It doesn’t take much time - you can just buy the Dow, and you will still get good returns. You won’t be making ten percent in a day, but you won’t be losing it, either.

This is a common occurrence. You heard people say that ‘the real estate sector is hot’ or ‘the internet sector is growing rapidly’ or ‘let’s buy the oil sector now. Energy price will rise again’ next year. Sounds familiar? It is. This is because these people encouraged you to invest in specific sectors.

What is wrong with sector investing? There is a common believe that rising tide will lift all boats. Therefore, when internet search is hot, then every companies in the field from Google to Looksmart will rise two to three folds, right? Wait a minute. Have you looked at the graph of Looksmart lately? If you haven’t, here is the two year graph of Looksmart Ltd. Let me show you another example. Everybody knows about the rising energy price, most notably oil. Therefore, if you look at the five year chart of energy companies from Chevron and the like, you would expect similar upward trajectory movement, right? Wrong. Take a look at a five year chart of an energy company IvanHoe Energy Inc. here.

So, should we look at sectors when investing? Absolutely. Sector search is very useful during your preliminary research. Auto sector is down. This might be a good place to find stock bargains, right? Yes. Should we blindly invest in any stocks in the auto industry? The answer is no. This goes back to the purpose of an investor. Investor exists to make the greatest return of assets possible while minimizing risk. The sensible way to do that is to compare investment alternative and pick the investment vehicles that may give investors the highest return. In the case of stock, we are looking at the expected profit of a company with respect to its stock price. This is the basis of the return on investment of stock investors.

Therefore, once you identify that the auto sector is a bargain, your homework continues. You should find companies that can give you higher return than the risk free ten year treasury bond. Currently, the ten year is yielding 4.52%. Since 4.52% is risk free, we need to find stocks that can yield more than 4.52% for the foreseeable future. Yield on a common stock can be calculated by dividing earning per share (EPS) with the stock price. If you invert this ratio, you will get the most commonly discussed ratio in the investment community, Price Earning (P/E) ratio.

Sector search is very useful in identifying future investment prospect. However, do not just blindly invest in stocks in specific sector. In the long run, stock price is correlated with the amounts of profit it can produce. Stock price does not correlate to the performance of other peers in the industry.

FOREX Trading Strategies

To be a successful FOREX trader you need to develop and adhere to a trading strategy. There are many different strategy’s available and no particular one is good for all traders; rather, each trader needs to develop his or her individual approach to the FOREX. We each have special skills that separate us from others and the FOREX trader needs to find what works best for him/her. Some traders rely solely on technical analysis while others prefer fundamental analysis, but many successful FOREX traders use a combination of both to get a broad overview of the market and for plotting entry and exit points.

Technical analysis, or charting, relies on one key concept: Prices move by trends. The common saying in FOREX and stock trading is ‘The trend is your friend.’ If prices are moving in one direction, the strength of the move can be observed by looking at the chart. Market movements have identifiable patterns that have been studied for many years and a thorough understanding of these trends and how to use the trends to make FOREX trading decisions form the basis of a good trading strategy.

There are many analytical tools available to study market movements. FOREX traders can use computer software or even pen and paper to perform their own analysis. Books abound describing many of these strategies. The beginner FOREX trader should study each one well and acquire a working knowledge of the concepts. Study each method until it is mastered, then use itthe strategy to fully learn it. Once mastered, move on to the next strategy and repeat. It is a simple practice to “trade” FOREX simply on paper, without entering any actual trades. In fact, this method is highly recommended until the beginning FOREX trader builds some confidence.

Support and resistance levels are used in many FOREX trading strategies. ‘Support’ refers to the price level that is repeatedly seen as the bottom - when the price reaches this level it tends to rise. Prices will seldom fall below the “support” line. At the opposite spectrum is the Resistance levels. Resistance appears to be the peak that a price will reach when buyers and sellers seem to agree. At this apex prices will move up no further. The space in between “resistance” and “support” is known as the “trading range”. Prices can move back and forth within this range for some time. The longer the time frame spent in this range, the more important the signal triggered when prices move outside of the range.

When currency prices break through either support or resistance levels, the prices are expected to continue in that same direction. As mentioned, the longer prices stayed in a trading range, the more significant the “breakout”, if prices move above “resistance” or “breakdown”, if prices fall below “support” For example, if the price rises above the previous resistance level, it is seen as bullish - the price should continue to rise. This signify’s that more buyers have entered the market and this increased “buy” pressure will move prices higher. Conversely, when sellers are too many and buyers few, a “breakdown” could signify prices moving lower again until buyers and sellers once again reach equqlibrium. To find support and resistance levels, price charts need to be analyzed for unbroken support and resistance levels. Charts can be analyzed in any time frame; short term traders will study daily or even hourly charts while the long term trader will use weekly or monthly charts to easily see the long term trend. Traders can use support/resistance levels to determine when to enter or exit a transaction.

Moving averages are another common tool in FOREX trading strategies. If a trader only uses the closing price of a currency at the end of the day as a guide, it is hard to establish the true direction of the move. Moving averages “smooth” out the large moves and give us a much clearer look at the currency price. One average used is the simple moving average (SMA) shows the average price in a given period of time over a specified period of time. A 10 day SMA simply takes the past 10 day closing price of a currency and averages out the 10 day data. Another popular moving average is a weighted moving average. While similiar to the SMA, the WMA puts more emphasis on the last several days trading. So while still showing a 10 day average, more weight is added to the last couple of trading days to better reflect the true trend. When prices are above the MA, they will tend to stay above the MA line. When the MA is below the line, price decline can be expected as well.

These are examples of trading strategies that can be used individually or in combination. In practice, the FOREX trader should have a repertoire of trading tools to examine market conditions and to support the findings of one trading method or another. Experienced traders will rely on several, rather than one, key indicators to base their trading decisions on.

Similarly, fundamental analysis can be used to reinforce technical findings, or vice versa. The FOREX trader will study currency valuations, inflation rates, and other key financial indicators to decide whether a currency is “cheap” or “expensive” Ideally, the FOREX trader will use several indicators into account when plotting a trading strategy.

Every trading strategy should provide clear guidelines about when to enter a trade, what to expect in terms of market movement, when to exit a trade, and how much loss can be accepted in case the deal moves against the trader. Following these simple guidelines and learning about technical analysis can help you become a successful FOREX trader.

Global warming and the credit crunch, these twin perils have spared the Alps, leastwise for Christmas. However it may have been so altogether different. Prior to Christmas hamlets in the Espace Killy locale were isolated when avalanches rained down. Dual carriage way routes such as the crowded Col du Val Cenis were closed. At that place there was no electricity or phones, residents were moved out to temporary housing, it looked as though it were a double of 1996.

Perhaps all publicity is good publicity. Les Trois Vallees appeared every night on the French news. Immediately mains was reconnected inquiries started to arrive, drawn in by the fantastic conditions.

Courchevel and neigboring Bessans have virtually four meters snow on the higher slopes at 2200 m alt. and 2.2 meters at the end of the pistes. Presently a record for France. Courchevel claims that there is 4 meters at the the highest point of the resort. Unfortunately snow storms have swept away a pylon of the chair lift that goes up to the sector. It is out of commission until the middle of Mar.

Elsewhere in the European Alps bookings are up 16% in Portes du Soleil, Samoens and Courchevel. Tignes-les-Brevieres, not too far from Geneva airport, has 99.8% tenancy and traded a record number of ski passes on Monday. This is great for big snowboarding companies.

Many investors think that investing in mutual funds is free. What nonsense! Funds collect more than $50 billion a year in fees from investors. That is truly a ton of money. The first way you get hosed in a mutual fund is due to high fees charged. These fees can dramatically reduce your returns over time!

The way that these fees are deducted automatically from a fund’s returns makes them invisible because you never see an invoice or have to write a check. If you invest $10,000.00 in a domestic stock mutual fund with an expense ratio of 2% and a sales load of 3%, and let’s imagine that you get annual returns of 7.5% for twenty years, your money would almost triple to $27,508.00.

The bad news is that you would have lost $14,970 in fees and foregone earnings over the twenty years. Yikes…that really hurts! Why not just bypass the system and buy your own stocks as I teach finance students and home study investors?
These funds are also sold and managed on pure hype, short term trading, and with key information withheld from the public.

All of these factors I teach finance students and investors to avoid! The industry confuses investors by focusing on past performance, which should not be a factor to consider. Many mutual funds are able to cheat the public with excessive fees because investors don’t understand how these big costs destroy their profit. Mutual funds have no interest in educating investors because it is easier to hoodwink the ignorant!

Don’t put your trust in mutual funds unless they are fully indexed. Indexing means that the mutual fund simply uses a computer to buy and sell stocks in the mutual fund portfolio so as to mimic the composition of a major stock market index like the S&P 500. This means that there is no fund manager sucking out needless fees. A good example is the first fully indexed mutual fund called the Vanguard 500 (VFINX) which is also now the largest of its kind.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Dr. Scott Brown, Ph.D., a.k.a. “The Wallet Doctor”, is a successful futures trader, real estate investor, and stock investor. Dr. Brown holds a Ph.D. in finance from the University of South Carolina. His 1998 articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities were prophetic in predicting an impending stock market crash. He has helped many people become profitable investors by teaching them to look out over many years to spot stocks that are low and primed for rise in the new bull market. His second article met with approval by Dr. Bob Shiller of Yale University. Dr. Shiller is the economist that Alan Greenspan most highly regards who coined the term “Irrational Exuberance.” In 1998 he shouted to the world to “get out” of the stock market but now he is shouting to everyone that it is time to “get in!” The Wallet Doctor is not only sought after for investment advice and coaching in stock investing but also in futures trading and real estate investing. Visit Dr. Brown’s site at http://www.BonanzaBase.com or sign up for his investment tips at http://www.WalletDoctor.com

If you’re in a hole, stop digging - it’s true of most things, and it’s certainly true of debt. So maybe The Times brought us good news when it announced that 58% of Britons were planning to cut back on their summer holidays, and 19% cancelling their summer holiday plans altogether. Maybe it’s encouraging to see people re-prioritising, keeping their money for essential things like rent, food and petrol.

On the other hand, it’s worrying to see so many cutting back on their holidays. Holidays might not be ‘essential’, but many of us see them as an important annual tradition: a reward for a year of hard work and a way to relax and ‘recharge the batteries’ before returning to the realities of bills, debts and work. It’s hard not to wonder how many people aren’t choosing to economise, but cutting back because they simply have no choice.

However you view the statistics, debt isn’t the only reason for these cutbacks. There’s also the credit crunch, the rising cost of living and the weakness of the Pound against the Euro. Cumulatively, these factors are nothing but bad news for people in the tourism industry. And since the travel and tourism industry employs over 120,000 people (according to the Institute of Travel & Tourism), this could well translate into bad news for economy. After the recent massive job losses among home-builders and estate agents, any threat to the travel and tourism industry could easily damage consumer confidence further and reduce the average consumer’s spending power.

On an individual level, of course, the impact could be much more immediate. How many of those 120,000 people are deep in debt - absolutely reliant on their next paycheque just to stay on top of their debt repayments?

It’s a serious problem: many financial experts advise people to set aside at least 3 months’ salary for a rainy day, but how many are able to do that? With record levels of personal debt and escalating cost of living, millions of people are struggling to afford their essential living costs and debt repayments, so saving is simply out of the question.

The ’silver lining’, the optimists say, is that hardship reminds people of why that safety net is so important. The next time the tough times come around, we promise ourselves, we’ll be ready for them, with our debts paid off and our 3 months’ salary safely in the bank.

Saving, however, is rarely a good idea when there are debts to be paid off. Whatever interest a savings account might accrue, it’s unlikely to be as much as the interest charged on the debts. So for anyone in debt, step one has to be getting out of debt, and the best way of doing that varies from person to person.

Original article by ThinkMoney.com (www.thinkmoney.com/debt/)

What are Index Futures? Future contracts originate from commodity trading. A future contract is an obligation to buy/sell a certain quantity of commodity at a specific date for a specific price determined at the outset of the contract. Future contracts are frequently used for hedging risks and also for speculation.

For example, with the recent hike in oil prices, an airline company which uses a lot of fuel might want to hedge it’s exposure to oil prices through the purchase of oil futures. If the price of oil is $60 now and is expected to go up to $70 within 3 months, the airline would hedge its exposure by purchasing the 3 month future contracts so long as the agreed price is less than $70.

Oil prices now $60 Expected oil price in 3 mth’s time (by airline) $70 Price of 3 mth oil contract (by oil producer) $68 Actual price 3 mths later $65

Let’s assume the airline can find an oil producer willing to sell oil 3 month later for $68, the company would enter a futures agreement with this oil producer for delivery of a certain quantity of oil in 3 month’s time. If the price of oil falls to $65, the airline still has to purchase at the agreed price of $68. But what propelled the airline to enter the futures contract in the first place is its expectations of future oil prices going up to $70 in 3 months and buying at a price below $70 (3 months later) seemed reasonable to the company.

Index futures are cash settled, there is no physical delivery of commodity as in the case of wheat, corn, etc. Although index futures can also be held for the long term, the time span we are concentrating on is a day. We are using the index futures as a vehicle for speculation and not for hedging as in the case of the airline company.

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What is the Emini S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100? NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 index futures is listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and trades on the Globex electronic system. CME acts as the counter party for each trade, hence if you short futures, CME will be taking the long position and vice versa.

NASDAQ 100 Emini contracts is actually one fifth the size of their larger counterparts, the NASDAQ 100 index futures. Each point of the index will represent $20 and the minimum fluctuation ( tick size ) is 0.5 points which is equivalent to $10.

S&P 500 Emini contracts is actually one fifth the size of their larger counterparts, the S&P 500 index futures. Each point of the index will represent $50 and the minimum fluctuation ( tick size ) is 0.25 points which is equivalent to $12.50.

Globex opens from 16:30(EST) on weekdays and 18:00(EST) on Sundays and public holidays. The closing time is 16:15(EST) on all days. However, there will be a scheduled maintenance of Globex from 17:30 till 18:00 (Monday through Thursday, nightly). I know the timings can be quite complicated, however as day traders, we are mostly concerned with trading when the market is opened as we have to capitalize on the higher liquidity available. I do not recommend entering trades after market hours, due to low volume which leads to slippage. The time span you have to concentrate on is really the market opening hours from 9:30 till 16:15 (EST).

More information regarding the contract specification of the Emini can be found on CME’s website.

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symbols for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 Emini index futures Both the NQ and ES emini contracts have expiry months in March, June, September and December which are denoted by the letters “H”, “M”, “U”, “Z” respectively. Hence NQ05Z will represent the NASDAQ 100 emini contract

with expiry month in December 2005. Similarly, ES06H will be the symbol for an S&P 500 emini contract with expiry month in March 2006.

March H June M September U December Z

Sportswear equipment has a very large interest at present as a consequence of how widespread an impact sports has on the people. People buy sports goods of all kinds including sports apparel, team apparel & sports kit. The perfect way to narrow down where to search for your sporting equipment is to find out what you are desire.

The Web is the most ideal place to rummage around for the sports gear you would like. You can come across masses of fantastic sports stores online that retail anything and everything linked to sports. Although you do have to pay for delivery and wait for your retail goods to be sent to you, the selection you will have will be far greater than those in the actual stores.

So where do you even begin to look may well say. If you need sports equipment, there are a variety nationwide sporting retail stores that sell an array of sports supplies. These sports shops are useful for the reason that you can find items for all brands of sports in one central location as well as shoes sports clothing, outdoor clothes & golfing goods. Find excellent prices on ladies golf equipment.

The downside to obtaining sports supplies at a normal store like these is that you might not acquire the highest quality stuff on the market right now. Indeed you can find quality items, but just not always the top of the line. In order to buy the top of the line sportswear gear you will have to go to a store that particularly sells what you are wanting. If you demand football equipment, then visit a retail store that focuses on football. If you need a precise baseball bat, going to a baseball specific shop will grant you a greater chance of discovering it.

A further kind of sports merchandise that brings in a great amount of income is team sportswear merchandise The best way to prove you obsession for your preferred football team or rugby team is to purchase their kit. Whether you desire a team’s scarf or a favourite sportsperson’s jersey, there are plenty of stores on the Internet & shops that you can view to purchase what you are looking for. One of the respected retail stores for sporting items on the World Wide Web is http://www.Sportswear-Equipment.com.

http://tradingideas4you.com/finance-money/finance-money.html

A brief look at the terminology commonly used by stock market day traders.

The investment firm commercials are frequently run on financial and news channels, and the life of a day-trader appears to be an attractive one. You’ve made up your mind to give it a try and commit yourself to learning all that you must in order to be successful. A great place to start is to become familiar with the most commonly used terms you will encounter on a daily, perhaps hourly, basis.

Since traders use hundreds of market-specific terms and phrases, with more being frequently introduced, we will cover the more basic and broadly used. First, we will define ‘the market’. When this term is used, it is a generic reference to the exchanges where stocks and bonds are traded, such as the New York Stock Exchange, American Stock Exchange, and the NASDAQ, much like any other market.

As you begin looking at specific stocks to purchase, you will become acquainted with price/earnings ratios, commonly referred to as the P/E. This simple equation compares the price of the stock with the company’s earnings per share. This term describes a ratio you will surely make frequent use of as a stock trader.

You settle on a few stocks that look attractive to you. If you are looking at the stock’s symbol in the newspaper, there will be listed the bid price and the ask price. There are typically a few pennies separating the two numbers, which is referred to as the spread. The ask price is what a trader will sell his stock for and the bid price is what a trader will be willing to purchase a stock for.

When you have decided to purchase a specific stock, you will start by placing an order. There are several types of orders, including a market order, a limit order, and a stop order. A market order is made when you wish to purchase a stock at the price at which it is currently trading, as quickly as it can be executed. A limit order is made when you want to buy or sell a stock at a specific price. For example, if you want to buy Wally’s Widgets at ten dollars per share even though it is trading at twelve dollars per share, you can put in a buy limit order at ten, which will be executed only when the stock falls to ten dollars per share or below. Conversely, if you own Wally’s Widgets stock, which is trading at ten dollars per share and you want to sell it, but not for less than twelve dollars per share, you can put in a sell limit. The limit order will only be executed if the stock rises to twelve dollars or more. Limit orders typically have a slightly higher commission fee attached.

We’ve discussed just a few of the terms you will encounter on a daily, if not more frequent, basis as a trader. The stock market is continually changing, offering new products and new systems within which to trade. It is worth the effort to keep abreast of these changes and the new terminology associated with them.

You can find more information here: http://tradingideas4you.com/finance-money/finance-money.html

Denial is a ubiquitous psychological defense mechanism. It involves the repression of bad news, unpleasant information, and anxiety-inducing experiences. Judging by the German press, the country is in a state of denial regarding the waning health of its economy and the dwindling fortunes of its financial system.

Commerzbank, Germany’s fourth largest lender, saw its shares decimated by more than 80 percent to a 19-year low, having increased its loan-loss provisions to cover flood-submerged east German debts. Faced with a precipitous drop in net profit, it reacted reflexively by sacking yet more staff. The shares of many other German banks trade below book value.

Dresdner Bank - Germany’s third largest private establishment - already trimmed an unprecedented one fifth of its workforce this year alone. Other leading German banks - such as Deutsche Bank and Hypovereinsbank - resorted to panic selling of equity portfolios, real-estate, non-core activities, and securitized assets to patch up their ailing income statements. Deutsche Bank, for instance, unloaded its US leasing and custody businesses.

On September 19, Moody’s changed its outlook for Germany’s largest banks from “stable” to “negative”. In a scathing remark, it said:

“The rating agency stated several times already that current difficult economic conditions that are hurting the banking business in Germany come on top of the legacy of past strategies that were less focused on strengthening the banks’ recurring earning power. Indeed, the German private-sector banks, as a group, remain among the lowest-performing large European banks.”

Last week, Fitch Ratings, the international agency, followed suit and downgraded the long-term , short- term, and individual ratings of Dresdner Bank and of Bayerische Hypo- und Vereinsbank (HVB).

These were only the last in a series of negative outlooks pertaining to German insurers and banks. It is ironic that Fitch cited the “bear equity markets (that) have taken their toll not only on trading results but also on sales to private customers, the fund management business and on corporate finance.”

Germans used to be immune to the stock exchange and its lures until they were caught in the frenzied global equities bubble. Moody’s observes wryly that “a material and stable retail franchise in its home market, even if more modestly profitable, can and does represent a reliable line of defence against temporary difficulties in financial and wholesale markets.”

The technology-laden and scandal-ridden Neuer Markt - Europe’s answer to America’s NASDAQ - as well as the SMAX exchange for small-caps were shut down last week, the former having lost a staggering 96 percent of its value since March 2000. This compared to Britain’s AIM, which lost “only” half its worth. Even Britain’s infamous FTSE-TechMARK faded by a “mere” 88 percent.

Only 1 company floated on the Neuer Markt this year - compared to more than 130 two years ago. In an unprecedented show of “no-confidence”, more than 40 companies withdrew their listings last year. The Duetsche Boerse promised to create two new classes of shares on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. It belatedly vowed to introduce more transparency and openness to foreign investors.

Banks have been accused by irate customers of helping to list inappropriate firms and providing fraudulent advisory services. Court cases are pending against the likes of Commerzbank. These proceedings may dash the bank’s hopes to move from retail into private banking.

To further compound matters, Germany is in the throes of a tsunami of corporate insolvencies. This long-overdue restructuring, though beneficial in the long run, couldn’t have transpired at a worse time, as far as the banks go. Massive provisions and write-downs have voraciously consumed their capital base even as operating profits have plummeted. This double whammy more than eroded the benefits of their painful cost-cutting measures.

German banks - not unlike Japanese ones - maintain incestuous relationships with their clients. When it finally collapsed in April, Philip Holzmann AG owed billions to Deutsche Bank with whom it had a cordial working relationship for more than a century. But the bank also owned 19.6 percent of the ailing construction behemoth and chaired its supervisory board - the relics of previous shambolic rescue packages.

Germany competes with Austria in over-branching, with Japan in souring assets, and with Russia in overhead. According to the German daily, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, the cost to income ratio of German banks is 90 percent. Mass bankruptcies and consolidation - voluntary or enforced - are unavoidable, especially in the cooperative, mortgage, and savings banks sectors, concludes the paper. The process is a decade-old. More than 1500 banks vanished from the German landscape in this period. Another 2500 remain making Germany still one of the most over-banked countries in the world.

Moody’s don’t put much stock in the cost-cutting measures of the German banks. Added competition and a “more realistic pricing” of loans and services are far more important to their shriveling bottom line. But “that light is not yet visible at the end of the tunnel … and challenging market conditions are likely to persist for the time being.”

The woeful state of Germany’s financial system reflects not only Germany’s economic malaise - “The Economist” called it the “sick man” of Europe - but its failed attempt to imitate and emulate the inimitable financial centers of London and New-York. It is a rebuke to the misguided belief that capitalistic models - and institutions - can be transplanted in their entirety across cultural barriers. It is incontrovertible proof that history - and the core competencies it spawns - still matter.

When German insurers and banks, for instance, branched into faddish businesses - such as the Internet and mobile telephony - they did so in vacuum. Germany has few venture capitalists and American-style entrepreneurs. This misguided strategy resulted in a frightening erosion of the strength and capital base of the intrepid investors.

In a sense, Germany - and definitely its eastern Lander - is a country in transition. Risk-aversion is giving way to risk-seeking in the forms of investments in equities and derivatives and venture capital. Family ownership is gradually supplanted by stock exchange listings, imported management, and mergers, acquisitions, and takeovers - both friendly and hostile. The social contracts regarding employment, pensions, the role of the trade unions, the balance between human and pecuniary capital, and the carving up of monopoly market niches - are being re-written.

Global integration means that, as sovereignty is transferred to supranational entities, the cozy relationship between the banks and the German government on all levels is over. Last October, Hans Eichel, the German finance minister, announced OECD-inspired anti-money laundering measures that are likely to compromise bank secrecy and client anonymity and, thus, hurt the German - sometimes murky - banking business. Erstwhile rampant government intervention is now mitigated or outright prohibited by the European Union.

Thus, German Laender are forced, by the European Commission, to partly abolish, three years hence, their guarantees to the Landesbanken (regional development banks) and Sparkassen (thrifts). German diversification to Austria and central and east Europe will provide only temporary respite. As the EU enlarges and digests, at the very least, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland in 2004-5 - German franchises there will come under the uncompromising remit of the Commission once more.

In general, Germans fared worse than Austrians in their extraterritorial banking ventures. Less cosmopolitan, with less exposure to the parts of the former Habsburg Empire, and struggling with a stagnant domestic economy - German banks found it difficult to turn central European banks around as successfully as the likes of the Austrian Erste Bank did. They did make inroads into niche structured financing markets in north Europe and the USA - but these seem to be random excursions rather a studied shift of business emphasis.

On the bright side, Moody’s - though it maintains a negative outlook on German banking - noted, in November 2001, the banks’ “intrinsic financial strength and diversified operating base”. Tax reform and the hesitant introduction of private pensions are also cause for restrained optimism.

Pursuant to the purchase of Drsedner Bank by Allianz, Moody’s welcome the emergence of bancassurance and Allfinanz models - financial services one stop shops. German banks are also positioned to reap the benefits of their considerable investments in e-commerce, technology, and the restructuring of their branch networks.

The Depression on 1929-1936 may have started with the meltdown of capital markets, especially that of Wall Street - but it was exacerbated by the collapse of the concatenated international banking system. The world today is even more integrated. The collapse of one or more major German banks can result in dire consequences and not only in the euro zone. The IMF says as much in its “World Economic Outlook” published on September 25.

The Germans deny this prognosis - and the diagnosis - vehemently. Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke - a board member of the European Central Bank - spent the better part of last week implausibly denying any crisis in German banking. These are mere “structural problems in the weak phase”, he told a press conference. Nothing consolidation can’t solve.

It is this consistent refusal to confront reality that is the most worrisome. In the short to medium term, German banks are likely to outlive the storm. In the process, they will lose their iron grip on the domestic market as customer loyalty dissipates and foreign competition increases. If they do not confront their plight with honesty and open-mindedness, they may well be reduced to glorified back-office extensions of the global giants.

About The Author

Sam Vaknin is the author of Malignant Self Love - Narcissism Revisited and After the Rain - How the West Lost the East. He is a columnist for Central Europe Review, PopMatters, and eBookWeb , a United Press International (UPI) Senior Business Correspondent, and the editor of mental health and Central East Europe categories in The Open Directory Bellaonline, and Suite101 .

Until recently, he served as the Economic Advisor to the Government of Macedonia.

Visit Sam’s Web site at http://samvak.tripod.com; palma@unet.com.mk