March 2009
Monthly Archive
Investors Alert29 Mar 2009 04:17 pm
China’s Great Missed Opportunity
While a U.S. Representative to the Asian Development Bank Executive Board of Directors during the first Bush Administration, I consistently called for China to “bite the bullet” and privatize its state-owned companies as soon as possible. Representatives from European and other Asian countries would just shake their heads and mutter about impatient Americans while counseling that China adopt a slow, incremental approach to privatization.
Here we are more than twelve years later and this bullet has turned into a time bomb that could derail China’s impressive economic growth and a better life for its people. The fact that a majority of China’s large companies are still owned and controlled by the Chinese government has three negative economic consequences.
First, it has stunted the growth of China’s financial markets and prevented many companies from tapping equity capital markets. Almost 70% of the shares of China’s 1,377 listed companies are substantially owned by the state and cannot be traded. This is the dreaded “overhang” which bedevils the Communist Party leadership and bureaucrats anxious for private Chinese shareholders to have share prices mirror economic growth. The Shanghai Composite Index recently dipped below 1,000 for the first time since 1997. The problem is that when the government sells these shares, private shareholders are diluted and share prices decline. The use of public funds to compensate private shareholders for this dilution has been considered and rejected as too expensive.
The Chinese government announced a $15 billion buyout fund to invest in state-owned companies but markets are deeply skeptical. My view is that only solution is auction off equity to private investors and de-list poor performers and let them struggle for survival.
Meanwhile private firms hungry for capital are denied a chance to list on these exchanges. The result is that private Chinese companies rely on banks for 99% of their financing! This lopsided dependence on bank financing is unhealthy and furthermore many Chinese banks are bogged down by mismanagement, bloated bureaucracies, corruption and saddled with politically motivated non-performing loans
In addition, China’s stock market slump is putting its brokerage firms in intensive care. China’s 114 brokerage firms that depend largely on stock trading commissions suffered a 45% decline in revenue in the first half of this year. Trading in the China A shares (for Chinese citizens only) market has virtually disappeared. The Shanghai Composite Index is down 15% this year. The Chinese government also has an unofficial moratorium on new listings.
Second, maintaining state ownership and control of so many Chinese companies leads to a lack of transparency and openness that is necessary for China to fully participate as a member of the global investment community. Foreign institutional investors tend to favor investing indirectly in China through the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to gain better disclosure and listing requirements. As an investment advisor, I recommend clients participate in Chinese growth primarily through investing in Hong Kong (EWH) Malaysia (EWM), Canada, (EWC) Australia (EWA), and other Asian countries. The issue of dysfunctional Chinese financial markets has also led to our recommendation to clients that India, not China, may be the best performing Asian stock market in the next ten or twenty years.
The recent announcements of Bank of America and HSBC to invest in two leading Chinese Banks is a welcome step but falls far short of the mark. Both are relatively small investments and both foreign investors will have little authority nor any meaningful management responsibilities. The Chinese want the publicity, the brand and the opportunity to learn but are clearly unwilling to relinquish any control.
Look at what Indonesia is doing to open its financial sector to international investment. International investors are now allowed majority and management control and just last week a large Singapore and Malaysian bank announced plans to make sizable investments in Indonesian banks. The Indonesia government is also drawing up a list of which of its 145 state-owned enterprises will be sold to investors. International investors have taken notice - the Indonesian stock market is doing well and our recommended Indonesia Fund (IF) is up 29% this year.
Third, as the recent high profile cases of Lenovo, Haier and CNOOC demonstrate, as state-owned Chinese companies seek to acquire or invest in foreign companies, the reaction is wariness, skepticism and outright political hostility. The Chinese leadership is trying to groom about 100 of its largest companies to go global in a big way and “brand hunting” of leading multinationals firms with its surplus cash ($700 billion in foreign exchange reserves) is the fastest way to achieve this objective. If you thought the Japanese spending spree during the 1980s was controversial in America - fasten your seat belt.
The U.S. Congress and other foreign governments will resist these bids since they have little interest in having a foreign government, especially an economic rival enjoying a $200 billion bi-lateral trade surplus, purchase its most prized companies. The issue of Chinese bidders using government financing is also a red flag. Then there is the issue of reciprocity - foreign companies can only obtain minority interests in Chinese state-owned companies and approval for even these minority stakes is not transparent and highly political.
Finally, there is the broad policy question as to the intent of the Chinese Communist leadership. The slow and grudging pace of privatization could reasonably be read as an indication that the Chinese government has no intention of relinquishing control of state-owned companies. This, in turn, has serious consequences as countries evaluate how to treat a rapidly growing authoritarian country that seeks to participate and benefit in the global economy by using state-owned and state-sponsored companies.
The Chinese adage of “crossing the river by feeling the stones” may be a wise policy at times but in this case a plunge into the river ten years ago would have been much better for the Chinese economy and people. It is by no means too late to take the plunge and the US should be ready to help in any way it can.
Find out more insights at http://www.chartwelladvisor.com
Copyright 2005 Carl Delfeld
Carl Delfeld is head of the global advisory firm Chartwell Partners and is editor of the “Chartwell Advisor” and the “Asia Investor Intelligence” newsletters. He served on the Executive Board of Directors of the Asian Development Bank in Manila and is the author of The New Global Investor (iUniverse: 2005). For more information go to http://www.chartwelladvisor.com or call 877-221-1496.
Investors Alert28 Mar 2009 06:54 pm
Fundamentals of Option Pricing
When one begins to consider an option, it is very important to figure out how the premium is calculated. Option premiums depend on a variety of factors including the time left to expiry as well as the price of the underlying security. There are two parts to an option premium: intrinsic value and time value. Consequently, several different factors have an influence on intrinsic and time value.
Intrinsic Value
Intrinsic value is the difference between the market price of the
underlying shares at any given moment in time and the
exercise price of the option. The following are a couple of
examples for call and put options.
Call Options
For example, say MicroCeuticals (MC) April $25.00 call options
are trading at a premium of $6.00 and MC shares are trading
at $30.00 per share, the option has $5.00 intrinsic value.
The latter is true because the option taker has the right
to purchase the shares for $25.00, which is $5.00 lower
than the market price. Such options, which have intrinsic
value, are said to be ‘in-the-money’. In this example,
the remaining $1.00 of the premium is time value ($6.00 - $5.00).
If the shares of MC were trading at $23.00, intrinsic value
would effectively be zero because the $25.00 call option contract
would only enable the taker to purchase the shares for $25.00
per share, which is $2.00 higher than the market price. When
the share price is less than the exercise price of the call option,
the option is considered to be ‘out-of-the-money’.
It is important to remember that call options convey to the
taker the right, but NOT the obligation to purchase the underlying shares.
If the share price is below the exercise price, then it is probably better to
purchase the shares on the share market and let the options lapse.
Put Options
Put options work in the opposite way to calls. If the exercise price
is greater than the market price of the share, then the put option is
in-the-money and possesses intrinsic value. Exercising the in-the-money
put option allows the taker to sell the shares for a higher price than the
current market price.
For example, an MC April $40.00 put option allows the holder to sell MC
shares for $40.00 when the current market price for MC is $35.00. This
option has a premium of $5.50, which consists of $5.00 of intrinsic value
and 50 cents time value. A put option is out-of-the-money when the
share price is above the exercise price, since a taker will not exercise
the put to sell the shares below the current share price.
As you may recall, put options convey the right, but not the obligation
to sell the underlying shares. If the share price is above the exercise price
then it is probably better to sell the shares on the share market and let
the option lapse.
It should be noted that when the share price equals the market price,
the call and put options are said to be ‘at-the-money’.
Time Value
Time value represents the amount that you are prepared to pay
for the possibility that the market might move in your favor
throughout the life of the option. It represents and extra payment
to the writer of the option to offset the risk that the underlying
share will move, and result in a loss to the writer. Time value will
vary with in-the-money, at-the-money, and out-of-the-money options
and is greatest for at-the-money options. As the time of expiry draws
near and the opportunities for the option to become profitable decline,
the time value decreases. This dilution of option value is termed
time decay. Time value does not decay at a constant rate,
but becomes more rapid, possibly even exponential, as one
gets closer to expiry.
Time value is influenced by the following factors, among others:
time to expiry, interest rates, market volatility (which you can quantify
using Bollinger Bands), dividend payments, and market expectations.
The time value of an option is greater the longer the time to expiry.
The premium will be higher under conditions of high market volatility.
Again, Bollinger Bands are a great way to measure market volatility.
This is a consequence of the wider range over which the stock or commodity
can potentially move. As interest rates increase, call option premiums will be driven up,
while put option premiums will be pushed down. Supply and demand will determine the
market value of all options. During times of strong demand, premiums will undoubtedly
be higher.
Hopefully this article will provide investors and traders considering purchasing
or selling options with more information. Although technical analysis is
useful in attempting to predict market movement, fundamental analysis of
options via the use of the factors described above may provide many traders
with benefits as well.
Joshua M. Kunken is Chief Currency Analyst for ForeignMarketWatch.com.
His articles have also been featured at ForexTrack.
Beauty Care28 Mar 2009 07:26 am
Flush Toxins from Your Body with DrFloras Cleanse
DrFloras Cleanse Rids Body of Toxins
A healthy colon is a colon that is free of a toxic waste build up. This toxic, unhealthy build up makes it much harder for waste to make its way through your intestines and out of your exit. Not only is harboring potentially harmful toxins in your system an unhealthy practice, but having this toxic waste build up can lead to other things as well. When the colon is so backed up, the excess gas will not be able to pass as easily or as quickly as it should be able to. A toxic colon loaded with build up prevents the waste from passing not as easily, but also as often as it should, thus leading to constipation and thorough discomfort. A herbal-based cleanse such as drfloras cleanse will dispose of this waste in a gentle, safe, and natural manner.
The act of colon cleansing, the flushing out of toxic waste build up that has been accumulating in your intestines, has been going on since the beginning of time, or at least since the beginning of recorded history. In fact, colon cleansing has been documented as having been going on since as early as 1500 B.C. in Egypt. Though many medical practices and treatments have come and gone throughout history, colon cleansing has stood strong and is even still practiced today, many years, decades, centuries”even a millennium later! Colon cleansing flushes out the toxic waste that tends to build up in your intestines from time to time; however, that is not all that colon cleansing has been proven to do. The benefits of colon cleansing are tremendous, and hard to simply ignore.One great colon cleansing system that many doctors would recommend would be drfloras cleanse. It is merely because colon cleansing is so important to your health, for the benefits of colon cleansing are simply too hard to ignore.
Cleansing The Colon with DrFloras Cleanse
The drfloras is so simple it can fit into any lifestyle and the results will amaze you. This colon cleanser has completely all natural ingredients, which ensures its safety. Because it has all natural ingredients, this colon cleanser will do no harm to your body whatsoever. This product made up of all natural ingredients, which ensures that it is extremely safe for your body. The all natural ingredients of this amazing colon cleansing system will not harm your body in any way, shape, or form considering that they are, well, all natural, meaning they are completely safe for you.
Cheap Auto Insurance Quotes - Texas
Texas Auto Insurance Coverage Requirements
- Bodily Injury Liability for one person: $25,000 Limit
- Bodily Injury Liability for all people:$50,000 Limit
- Property Damage Liability: $25,000 Limit
*Requirement for higher limits went into effect - 4/1/08
When you’re involved in an accident in the state of Texas, their auto insurance laws state that a person must always be found to be responsible. The insurance underwriter and the person blameful are then held financially answerable to compensate for damages. This system is known as the tort system. There are several other states that apply this type of system, but specific rules and regulations may change by state.
To have better insurance security, you can opt for uninsured/underinsured insurance coverage. This auto insurance policy option covers the financial liabilities involved with bodily injury caused in an accident with an uninsured/underinsured person. The state of Texas does not expect motorists to buy this type of coverage, but people should look at utlizing this worthwhile optional auto insurance type.
Texas auto insurance can be too expensive to some. In 2003, the premium paid on average was a little above $900 and many residents do not know that their auto insurance premiums could be reduced. Insurance rate shopping websites acknowledge there are cheaper auto insurance rate quotes available for Texas motorists, and will provide assistance to help you uncover them.
Sites like this can help you find the best expenses, but there’s no guarantee that they can help. Insurance Premiums generally grow over the years. From 1999 - 2006, insurance rates did not decrease. Finally, in 2007, average insurance rates did settle down, but by only about 1 prcent. 2008 also was able to show some decreases in rates, however, they are expected to grow again in 2009 as the economy gets worse.
As your driving record gets stronger or your personal situation changes, you may not be getting all the premium deductions you qualify for and will end up paying more for insurance. Auto insurance fluctuates and recently there was an go up of 6% from 2002 to 2003. You won’t see your auto insurance firm always telling you about rebates and overall, premiums increase over time. To compare premiums, use the power of the internet and visit sites that will help you find the best insurance expenses in Texas.
Choosing between Specs and Contact Lenses
While many individuals still wear eyeglasses, there appears to be little doubt that they are on the way out. There’s no doubt that putting them in your eyes and taking them out again can be scary initially, but once you’re used to it they are much more convenient than wearing bulky spectacles on your face, not to mention almost invisible, even to people who get close to your eyes.
Vanity isn’t the lone grounds to wear contact lenses, though. For a lot of people, it is simply more practical - they work better for sport or any kind of manual work, for example, where specs could easily get damaged. contacts are also not subject to the many things that can go wrong with specs, such as shattering, busting, or being afflicted by the weather (when they get rained down on, for example).
If you are just entering the world of contact lenses, though, it can feel like a bit of a tangle. What should you choose? Hard lenses or soft? Daily lenses or monthly? Each selection comes with its rewards and disadvantages.
The simplest question to take on is plausibly that of hard lenses. While hard lenses are still in use in many parts of the world, this is chiefly down to grounds of habit - people who are already using them are unlikely to switch over. To the new user, hard lenses offer no advantages, and they are incredibly awkward until you get used to them. It is much better to simply go with soft lenses.
When it gets to the doubt of whether daily disposable lenses are advisable, however, there is some controversy. Once you factor in the cost of cleaning solutions for monthly lens systems, there is little divergence in cost, but some people simply favour not to buy and throw away so many lenses. Ultimately, though, daily disposables tend to be thinner and therefore more comfortable, as well as costing you less if you happen to lose one, which makes them better suited to the beginner.
Top Young Online Stars
Prior to online poker and the so-called Chris Moneymaker evolution following his World Series of Poker victory in 2003, an influx of fresh faces joined the poker community. Many of these players had never before played poker and instead played other casino games , and within a few years had found themselves financially secure for the rest of their lives playing poker online. How could young amateurs crush the game in such a short period of time for such a large amount of money? Young people brought a fresh new look to the game, and dragged it out of the smoky backrooms and basements and in front of the TV cameras. Mainstream society that wrote poker off as a gambling game for degenerates now saw that there was something more to it; they saw the valuable roles math, probability and psychology played in a not so simple game of cards. The internet piped poker right into their dorm rooms at school, and the rate at which hands are dealt online, as well as the ability to play more than one table at once resulted in a tremendously expedited learning process, as years of poker education could be condensed in a few dozen ten hour sessions aided by red bulls and delivered pizzas.
Not many of the young internet superstars started off destitute, but very few of them deposited any more than a few hundred dollars en route to millions. Most started in the lowest limits and moved up as they felt more comfortable and their bankroll grew, and quickly mastered the next level. Make no mistake, many others tried and failed, and the young poker elite succeeded as a result of hard work, and gifted minds that happened to be perfect for the analytics involved in poker.
Live poker professionals often bristle at the success these young people have had, as the older generation of pros had a much longer, more tumultuous road to the top, and have trouble processing that someone half their age could be at the same skill level, or possibly even better than they are. It is a tough reality, but in many cases, internet pros make much better decisions on average based on math and probability, and have excellent bankroll management skills. The top online pros are without a doubt comparable with any name live pro. What can be gathered from this is that the online forum for poker is a great learning ground for nearly all skills necessary to play live poker. Following their stories and using them as a template for your online ascension, regardless of how old you are, is a great way to start making more money playing poker.
ISPreview Survey Reveals One in Every Five Britons Supports Action against Illegal Downloads
The UK has been facing the problem of illegal downloading by broadband users for quite a while now and tackling this issue has been a matter of much concern. The Digital Britain interim report, that was revealed a few weeks ago by Lord Carter, encourages internet service providers to warn customers indulging in such activities.
However, trying to influence the service providers to take the role of tackling the offenders is not easy as they do not consider it their responsibility and argue that it is beyond their control. The Internet Service Providers Association (ISPA) remarked that it is next to impossible to track each link that is accessed and downloaded, just like it is impossible for the Post Office to filter every envelope that it gets.
In light of the ongoing debate over tackling the issue, a recent survey reveals that a significant number of people in the UK would like to see that illegal users are punished. ISPreview.co.uk, the website that conducted the survey, using 472 respondents, discovered that 20.7 per cent supported shutting down all sites that allow illegal downloading to take place. For more info on the services and restrictions imposed by your service provider, click on broadband comparison at Broadband Genie for info all the top UK broadband providers
From those participating in the survey, it was found that 14.8 percent believe that as a punishment for unabated illegitimate peer-to-peer activity, the user’s overall broadband speed should be drastically reduced. Almost 27 percent, however, felt that sending aggressive warning letters was a more reasonable measure.
The survey pointed out that not many respondents wanted the offenders to suffer any serious consequences. In fact, ISPreview.co.uk found that a mere 3.6 percent of the people agreed that enforcing legal action would be a correct step. Only 6.1 percent considered terminating the broadband connection to be a just punishment for the illegal users.
A Simple Guide to Gambling Games Gambling Aficionados like to Contest: Gambling Saloon Wagering
Assuming that you have not yet mastered casino games, read on… Most commonly a gaming hall is an edifice that features games of chance. At such a place, guests may relax handling the one armed bandits or a slew of other betting games. Betting hall games mainly have precisely determined probabilities included that safeguard the establishment holds on to a versus the players.
Numerous casino games can make you end up obsessed very rapidly. For instance the vintage slotmachine, a coin operated appliance with three plus gears spinning if an arm attached to it is wrenched. The machine normally reimburses in alignment with an array of images presented on the information screen of the machine. Disastrously, betting saloon games will convey the delusion of manageability, effectively conning the gambling enthusiast — the addressee is presented with judgments, but in actual fact these cannot really level the gamer’s long-term negative odds. This is precipitated by the gambling saloongambling house never paying up the full sum as expected. This pattern is often noticeable in acclaimed casino games such as straight poker, dice, roulette or blackjack.
Seven card stud is undeniably an incredibly popular casino pastime. The betting devotees, jealously guarding their partially concealed hands, must place bets into a central pot which is finally granted to the winning gamester blessed with the winning hand. (And yes, the shameless bluff may well prevail ..) Analogous to seven-card stud, blackjack is likewise an incredibly fashionable casino pastime. A lavish portion of its acclaim is thanks to the mix of luck and proficiency and decision making, not to mention a routine tagged “card counting”. This is a particular gambling tactics in which gaming fans may dramatically bend the winning odds of the game for their own good by both betting & tactical decisions correlating with the hands dealt.
“Craps” is a famous game using the throw of dice. Bettors may bet on the outcome of of 1 roll, or on a succession of spins of 2 dice. Contrary to blackjack, there is no easily available sustainable winner system players can use to ramp up the chances. Roulette is another well-known game. Here, a croupier twists a roulette wheel featuring thirty seven (classical roulette) or, respectively precisely thirtyeight (Vegas roulette) independently marked divisions in which the rolling ball will come to rest, which decides on the winning number Now if the participant has wagered on a particular number and actually is successful, which is to say they’ve got a lucky hand, the reward is going to be thirty-five to one, the original pledge will be paid back. Hence in total it is multiplied by a factor of thirty six.
Please make sure to be alert notwithstanding as each of these gaming room games of luck may well be massively addictive. Copious lives are reported to have been wrecked thru addictive gambling and though it indeed feels like a lot of fun, do endeavor to exert some restraint.
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Uncategorized23 Mar 2009 02:21 am
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Internet Information20 Mar 2009 10:04 pm
The Flourishing Trans National Property Space: Catered to by Property Index
Despite the fact that the Property Index is really a newcomer enterprise, incorporated in March 2007, they have attained to expert status very quickly. They are a extremely easy-going enterprise focusing entirely on offering informed instructions to every visitor looking to let, sell, rent or buy real estate assets in most areas of the world. Their avowal: to lend you a hand to light on precisely what you are looking for swiftly not to mention without pain.
Land is at your fingertips almost anywhere in the world presently, probably the really elite area being property you can purchase in Portugal. It’s easy as one-two-three to list some of the fun properties available for sale in Portugal, the reason for looking for property here is property available for sale and the chance to live right amid such a optimistic people. It is one of the most fashionable markets presently, and in view of the beauty and the agreeable weather that surrounds you all day long, how can you say no… Land in Portugal is immersed in culture, art and history, this part of the world has been and is still home to a good number of civilizations.
There are a range of properties in Portugal for sale on Property Index, from villas to apartments.
Only 25-30 years back you’d find a mere trickle of Englishmen who are looking for properties in Portugal. Ask any individual who has moved to Portugal and they’ll tell you the same. Many would describe it as a fairly insignificant fad and others describe it as a almost an infatuation! The people who move over here generally range from young well to do couples in search of a life perspective to the older generation meaning to relax and enjoy themselves. Note that you may well encounter a few perplexities when purchasing properties abroad — there’ll be 100s of steps to bear in mind when working out a plan, visiting or finalising. Even if one single minute procedure is missed it may kick up great perplexities as well as, more importantly, a financial trouncing.
Obviously and expectably with this well-liked destination, properties might well be very high-priced in this area and that is just a consequence of the growing demand. Nevertheless homebuyers indeed are spoilt for choice in a region so full of great topography and warm scenery. It’s indeed got the whole kit and caboodle anyone could covet and more.
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